I can't even speculate. Liberals are in majority territory, according to the polls, but a lot of people who will vote Tory don't want to admit that out loud. So I am still provisionally worried. I think the NDP will be crushed (not in the good Orange Crush way, in the bad "no official party status" way), but honestly they deserve it at this point for not being radical enough and suppressing the most politically progressive candidates.
It is clear that Trump's elections and policies have really hurt the Tories. PP established himself as in lock-step with Trump and represents the most radical end of the political spectrum. He's had to pivot and try to rebrand as less of an extremist, but this is challenging because he was very much an extremist a few months ago and people's memory isn't that short.
This all could turn out very well. The ideal scenario is usually a Liberal minority with the NDP holding the balance of power, but controversially, it might not be the ideal this time. What would be good is if the Tories are crushed so thoroughly that they need to do what no other far-right party in the Anglosphere has had to do, and shift the Overton window back towards the centre. This would cause a split in the party and we would once again end up with two right-wing parties, allowing a greater diversity of politics on the left as well. There's a non-zero chance that Poilievre loses his seat, which would also be great to see.
The bad outcome is that everyone is lying about who they're voting for, and/or Carney fails to stick the landing, and we end up with a Tory government. In which case, we are de facto the 51st state.
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Date: 2025-04-18 06:13 pm (UTC)It is clear that Trump's elections and policies have really hurt the Tories. PP established himself as in lock-step with Trump and represents the most radical end of the political spectrum. He's had to pivot and try to rebrand as less of an extremist, but this is challenging because he was very much an extremist a few months ago and people's memory isn't that short.
This all could turn out very well. The ideal scenario is usually a Liberal minority with the NDP holding the balance of power, but controversially, it might not be the ideal this time. What would be good is if the Tories are crushed so thoroughly that they need to do what no other far-right party in the Anglosphere has had to do, and shift the Overton window back towards the centre. This would cause a split in the party and we would once again end up with two right-wing parties, allowing a greater diversity of politics on the left as well. There's a non-zero chance that Poilievre loses his seat, which would also be great to see.
The bad outcome is that everyone is lying about who they're voting for, and/or Carney fails to stick the landing, and we end up with a Tory government. In which case, we are de facto the 51st state.