A wee bit of optimism

[sabotabby]

Lest it be said that I sit around complaining about politics and never do anything, I woke up early this morning to canvas for Peter Tabuns. Most people weren't home, but things are looking good for my little corner of Toronto. (Which is not unexpected; it's a solidly NDP area.)

Things are looking good for Toronto in general. In a massive mea culpa for screwing ourselves by electing an utter buffoon for mayor, Toronto is once again leaning left. Hudak is slipping all over the province, partially owing to him being a massive racist.

Bottom line is it's close, people. The stakes are high for me personally: If Hudak gets in, there's a strong chance that I'll either lose my job or that my working conditions will degrade to the point where it's impossible to do my job. The public education system has never really recovered from the last Conservative government in the mid-90s, and can't afford to have any more people or resources taken out of it.

Also, there are probably worse ways to get a workout than running up and down people's front steps. I think I've earned a cookie, but there are no cookies around so I think I've earned a whole pint of Ontario strawberries.

Comments

[lienne.livejournal.com]

*bakes you internet cookies*

[sabotabby]

Internet cookies are the best kind! No calories.

[smhwpf.livejournal.com]

Definitely cookie-worthy.

Any clue how those numbers are likely to translate into seats? I see you have 107 ridings - would 36-32-26 be likely to translate into a Tory majority? (I seriously hope not). And if the Tories get most seats but a minority, would they be likely to get in with a minority administration, or could there be a Liberal-NDP coalition?

[sabotabby]

Lack of proportional representation always screws us, so I'm not sure how this will translate into seats. (There's a reason why the Star, traditionally a Liberal paper that is increasingly leaning NDP, does not speculate on seats. Seats will always look better for the Tories than a population poll.)

There's always talk of a Liberal-NDP coalition. I think it would play very badly, not just to the NDP base, but also strategically, because much of the increased support for the NDP is coming from disgruntled Liberals. Short-term, I feel that it would benefit everyone, because short-term, I believe the sole goal should be making sure that Hudak is not Premier. I was willing to tell my own mother to vote Liberal—something I could never do myself—if it was a vote against the Conservative candidate in her riding. Long-term, it benefits the Liberals but not the NDP, who are smarter to keep in the left-hand lane and turn populist anger into something productive. (On that note, I've been toying with the idea of joining the NDP to cast a vote against Brian Topp, who is very unwisely being pimped as a frontrunner in the leadership race, when practically anyone else who they'd choose would be a better leader.)

To be honest, I'm nervous as all hell. A far-right government at all three levels could cause irreparable damage, particularly in my profession. I can't even afford to be cynical about electoral politics anymore.

[smhwpf.livejournal.com]

Of course, PR wouldn't remove the coalition dilemma...

Coalitions are tricky in countries that are not used to them - in those that have PR, people are less likely to feel betrayed by small progressive parties going in with larger centrist parties, because they know that there's always going to be coalitions and compromises.

Hmm, OK, the example of the Irish Labour Party is not encouraging. Now, Ireland does have PR, but still usually has single party government because the single party is (or was until recently) Fianna Fail.

The Labour Party have been in 8 coalition governments (including the present government, and one involving a change of government without an election), and in 5 out of 6 of the subsequent elections they've lost support.

On the other hand, they have almost always been in coalition with the somewhat more right-wing of the main parties, Fine Gael. Plus, one may argue that there will always be a downward bias, as the third party is more likely to get into government when they are in a high-water mark of support.

The German Greens on the other hand increased their vote after the first term in coalition with the SPD from 1998-2002,remaining in coalition, and only lost a small amount.

Sorry, geeking out here. Anyway, clearly a dilemma, though in some ways it seems hard for me to see how "let the Tories have power" can possibly be a better answer if an alternative exists.

Anyway, fingers crossed for you guys.

[frandroid.livejournal.com]

Just to be curious, do you have political/ideological objections to Topp, or is it just an impression of him as a talking log?

[sabotabby]

The latter would be just as bad, but everything I've heard about the guy suggests that he's Third Way, pro-austerity measures, and had a lot to do with the preamble being taken out of the NDP constitution.

The NDP needs someone charismatic, though. I realize they won't get someone who is as charismatic as Layton, experienced, and from Quebec, but they at least need two of the three.

[zingerella.livejournal.com]

I feel like the NDP also needs someone who understands the value of consensus, and who is clever. I think Topp is clever, but not a consensus-builder. A lot of people put their trust in Jack—they trusted him to listen, and to foster consensus, and to give a little here/push a little there. Topp doesn't seem to do that—he's all confrontation, and I think he alienates people.

Also, he has no feminist credentials to speak of, that I can find.

[frandroid.livejournal.com]

Yeah, consensus is probably more important in the NDP than in any other party...

I'm hoping Libby runs, if she's ever made any effort to learn French. You'd think these people would think ahead of time... (But then again we have Gerard Kennedy, who is married to a francophone and never bothered. Massive fail!)

[zingerella.livejournal.com]

I think it's actually _more_ important in the Greens, but they don't amount to much yet, and maybe never will.

I think that consensus might not be as important in the NDP if the Orange Crush hadn't happened. If the NDP were still the third federal party, and there wasn't this need to justify the faith a lot of people placed in them, they could be much more about confrontation. But right now, a lot of people are going to want to know that they're going to be heard. This is why it's so important that the leader have excellent French, of course—all those francophones in Quebec. But outside Quebec, a lot of people also trusted the NDP, and they need to feel that their voices aren't going to be lost.

I guess people don't really think they're going to run for leader until the question of who is going to run for leader comes up? Except that some people (see Mulcair) clearly do.

[bcholmes.livejournal.com]

*nod* I've been canvassing for Rosario Marchese. So far, the support's been really good. (knock on wood)

[sabotabby]

I imagine. He's a good guy.

[jackspryte.livejournal.com]

Hudak in power could screw me too. I've already been warned by Dr.s about the probable de-listing of trans related health stuffs and programs. I'll be out with Jonah Schein's peps for the queer rally. I like Jonah a lot. He's good and hard working.

[sabotabby]

Shit, I hadn't even thought of that. I figured you'd mostly get screwed under Ford, work-wise; I hadn't even thought about what Hudak would do to healthcare. When/where is the queer rally?

[jackspryte.livejournal.com]

It's a Queer and Trans Canvas for Jonah in Davenport.

http://www.facebook.com/event.php?eid=215678401825020